Probable Cause

Probable Cause

Six NTSB investigations, told from the investigators' own briefings.

Six accidents. Ten on-scene briefings. What the NTSB said in the first days of each investigation, in its own words, with every claim linked to the moment it was said.

Six NTSB accident sites
  1. Miami International Airport, Miami, Florida, United States — Amazon Air Flight 7598, a Boeing 767-300 operated by 21 Air, overran runway 30 on landing at 1:53 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time. [1]
  2. Louisville Airport, Louisville, Kentucky, United States — A UPS MD-11F crashed at approximately 5:15 p.m. after a fire on the left wing during the takeoff roll. [2]
  3. LaGuardia Airport, New York, New York, United States — A Bombardier CRJ900 operated by Jazz Aviation as Air Canada Express Flight 8646 collided with an aircraft rescue and firefighting vehicle while landing around 11:37 p.m. [3]
  4. Northeast Philadelphia Airport, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, United States — A Learjet 55 crashed into a commercial and residential area shortly after takeoff at about 1806 Eastern Standard Time. [4]
  5. Portland International Airport, Portland, Oregon, United States — Alaska Airlines Flight 1282 departed runway 28L and later landed on runway 28L after the door plug expelled. [5]
  6. Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport, Arlington, Virginia, United States — The midair collision between a PSA Airlines CRJ700 and an Army UH-60L Black Hawk near Reagan National, the accident the NTSB referred to in its LaGuardia briefing. [6]

From Six NTSB accident sites

What we know about the Miami runway excursion of Amazon Air Flight 7598

Explainer · 2026-11-05

The gist: A Boeing 767-300 cargo jet flying for Amazon Air overran a runway at Miami International Airport, tore through airport equipment, a cleaning crew's van and a passenger car, and came to rest about 1,300 feet past the pavement. The NTSB has recovered both recorders,…

What we know about the UPS MD-11 crash in Louisville

Explainer · 2026-11-05

The gist: A UPS McDonnell Douglas MD-11 freighter bound from Louisville to Honolulu crashed shortly after takeoff on the evening of November 4, 2025, after a large plume of fire appeared near the left wing during the takeoff roll and the left engine separated from the wing. The…

What we know about the Learjet crash in Philadelphia

Explainer · 2026-11-05

The gist: A Learjet 55 air ambulance crashed into a commercial and residential area of Northeast Philadelphia shortly after takeoff on the evening of February 1, killing all six people on board and devastating the surrounding community. The NTSB has opened a full investigation,…

“The flight data recorder contained approximately 55 hours of data and recorded more than 400 parameters.”

NTSB Investigators on the Record: What the Recorders Showed, What Failed, What They Ruled Out, and What Comes Next

“The cockpit voice recorder contained more than two hours of good quality audio”

NTSB Investigators on the Record: What the Recorders Showed, What Failed, What They Ruled Out, and What Comes Next

“Throttles increased to values consistent with go around thrust.”

NTSB Investigators on the Record: What the Recorders Showed, What Failed, What They Ruled Out, and What Comes Next

“No indication in the recorded data that speed brakes or thrust reversers were deployed.”

NTSB Investigators on the Record: What the Recorders Showed, What Failed, What They Ruled Out, and What Comes Next

“So the information I provided is only what's on the flight data recorder. What we need to do is talk to the crew and get their account to understand how they're manipulating the controls in order to get a better understanding of the situation.”

NTSB Investigators on the Record: What the Recorders Showed, What Failed, What They Ruled Out, and What Comes Next

“Overran runway 30 on landing, struck navigational aids and equipment, then impacted a 2012 white Ford Econoline van that was owned by Professional Ocean Service Corporation which is a contract cleaning company for the airlines.”

NTSB Investigators on the Record: What the Recorders Showed, What Failed, What They Ruled Out, and What Comes Next